Australia Votes 2022 — An Election Primer.

Part 1: A Preface.

With Australians set to go to the polls in May of this year, voter intention polls consistently show the Labor Party maintaining a lead outside the margin of error over the incumbent Liberal/National coalition. Roy Morgan reports a 57–43 margin in two party preferred (TPP), while Newspoll reports a 55–45 margin.

However, as political observers know well, polling should not be held as a gospel truth. From the victory of the Leave campaign in 2015, to Donald Trump claiming the Presidency in 2016, to Scott Morrison winning the ‘unwinnable election’ in 2019, the lesson to be heeded should be, when it comes to elections, it’s not over until it’s over.

This primer will seek to; state by state, and territory by territory; take the reader through each seat in the Australian House of Representatives, finishing with a speculative analysis of the convoluted Australian Senate. We will examine the political history and makeup of seats, meet the candidates contesting each seat, explore where the battlegrounds are, and finally, speculate as to where there could be potential upsets on Election Night.

Come, dear reader, and join me on this path through the political quirks of Australia’s states and territories. Together, we will try to make sense of everything, and hopefully leave with some idea of what we may expect come Election Day.